Year-over-year comparisons in the Christie’s Prime Sentiment Index look like a step backward. The composite fell from 15.6 in 2025 to 14.4 in 2026. The buyer demand component dropped from 37.7 to 29.3. Those numbers read as deterioration. The component picture complicates that reading considerably.
Price outlook rose from 13.8 to 14.0 — a small move, but directionally significant. Inventory pressure eased. Those two components moving in the opposite direction from buyer demand describe a market that is recalibrating its pace, not reversing its direction. Christie’s International Real Estate, which publishes the PSI as part of its annual Global Luxury Perspectives report, frames the 2026 reading as equilibrium: fewer active buyers, more available inventory, and price expectations that remain positive.
The demand component’s 8.4-point drop is the year’s headline number, and it has a clear structural explanation. Mortgage rates in the high-five to low-six percent range have sorted the buyer pool. The equity-funded buyer above $5 million — the cohort that sets trophy pricing — is largely rate-indifferent and remains active. The second-home buyer and the aspirational luxury entrant who borrowed aggressively in 2021 and 2022 have pulled back. Their withdrawal from the market explains the demand reading without explaining the price outlook, which that cohort does not control.
The Supply-Side Shift
New construction completions in Florida, Hawaii, and Western ski markets represent the supply component of the year-over-year change. Developers who responded to the 2020-to-2022 demand surge are delivering now. Naples, Florida and Vail Valley are the US markets that saw the largest year-over-year PSI decline in Christie’s 2026 data — both are absorbing completions that arrived late into a softer demand environment. The Hamptons was flat year-over-year. New York City improved on every component.
Internationally, the year-over-year picture favors Mexico City and Lisbon — both showed sharp improvement. Dubai and Singapore strengthened their position in the over-$10 million cross-border segment relative to 2025. London and Paris held flat after underperforming in the prior year as well.
The broker-level data from Christie’s affiliate network confirms the aggregate story: listing prices on trophy assets have not moved down year-over-year. Bid-ask spreads are narrower than they were in the second half of 2024. Close rates have steadied. The October 2026 PSI will provide the first year-over-year comparison with Q3 transaction data embedded. The network’s expectation is that it will confirm the equilibrium pattern.
Source: Christie’s Prime Sentiment Index Slips to 14.4 as Luxury Housing Rebalances